After what seems like weeks of rain, the sun pops in for a 2 day holiday. In the city, colour returns, the umbrellas finally dry out and there seems to be some cautious optimisms that lingers as the thought that this just might be the real beginning of Summer is finally entertained by the few remaining optimists.
Perhaps I’m feeling just a bit jaded as I fight off the remains of my close encounter with what may have been the infamous H1N1 virus. After a pretty rigourous regimen of antibiotics, the pneumonia has abatted to a whimpy cough but for a time, too long in my opinion, I wondered if I still had the strength to survive the coughing after almost a week of 104+ degrees Fahrenheit of fever and a serious loss of appetite. It`s behind me know….but being experienced living in chaos, I couldn`t help but wonder about some what-if scenarios.
One of several hats I wear has the ‘Civil Security’ label on it. In a recent cross-regional conference call, many of the participants were too busy dealing with ‘pandemic planning’ in their municipal or regional governments to discuss such topics as ‘what if there is a pandemic?’ The reality is that while the federal government promotes a 72-hour preparedness plan for the general population, Civil Security agencies are gearing up for a much more serious possibility.
The typical scenario deals with a 30 percent reduction in the workforce during a pandemic. At that level, you’ve got 20 to 30 percent of the population that is sick and needs care. But you’ve also got 30 percent fewer police officers, paramedics, nurses, doctors and orderlies. With 30 percent of the truckers, pack boys, warehouse attendants and order clerks hacking away at home or in the hospital, by what percentage have you reduced the amount of goods that transported to major cities? And at what point do empty shelves, closed hospitals, reduced bus, train, plane schedules start to seriously affect law and order, civil obedience, rationale behaviour?
That’s the kind of stuff that civil security planners are thinking about. And while people may say that the 1918 pandemic can’t happen in 2009, we should bear in mind that in 1918 people were much more accustomed to misery and chaos, and better able to adapt, than we are in our ipod and HDTV world. How comfortable are you with chaos?